99 is the New 100 or
Happy Birthday Mr. President
When former U.S. President Jimmy Carter entered hospice care on February 18, 2023 at the age of 98 years, 4 months, and 17 days, no stockbroker or Vegas bookie would have bet he’d live to see 99. Hospice care, by definition, is end of life care, and usually is reserved for those with a few weeks or months remaining on their time card. Yet here we are, October 1, 2023, and POTUS 39 has once again defied the odds as he is wont to do.
I can’t say that I’m as shocked as I should be, not only because Carter has always marched to the beat of his own drum — it’s a characteristic of the monogram — nor because he’s already the longest-lived president by nearly five years. No, I’m not surprised the peanut farmer from Georgia got to this last possible double-digit birthday because given recent history, 99 is obviously the new 100.
There is a phenomenon in sociology known as The Birthday Effect that somewhat sometimes finds a correlation between people’s birth dates and death dates. The gist of it is that people seem to have the ability to will themselves to live until or just beyond a certain date of significance. While the easiest date to study is a person’s birthday (currently fixed, though you never know what the future may bring: “I don’t care what my birth certificate says, I feel I was born two days before!”), the effect can also be found (sometimes) with anniversary dates, holidays (i.e. “The Christmas Effect”), and even sports seasons.
Demographic studies find all sorts of correlations between population subsets and death dates, with some of the factors being marriage status, anniversaries, weekdays vs. weekends, and causes of death, to name just a few. Other studies have eluded to connections of not just birth dates but significant birth dates, such as those that end with the number zero. My recollection of my university sociology studies wants to remember that people who live to, say, 99 are more likely to make it to 100 than probability should indicate. In other words, if you make it to 99, your odds of seeing 100 are slightly higher than they should be. The Birthday Effect (TBE).
Sadly, this no longer appears to be true. My theory, not supported by any research grants, or any research at all other than a few recent high-profile deaths, shows a Birthday Effect Reversal. Why this is so is up for debate: The post 9/11 world; Donald Trump; COVID–19; memes. Whatever the reasons, in the early 21st Century people appear to be unwilling themselves to make it to triple digits.
It may have started with Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh (June 10, 1921–April 9, 2021), who decided he’d had enough just 62 days before he’d have hit the century mark. One would think that this OBE would have been able to invoke TBE by royal decree. Not even the Queen had it within her powers to make it so.
Next up we have Betty White (January 17, 1922–December 31, 2021), the show-off who had to show-up the Prince. White had the spunk to wait until People magazine printed an issue honoring her 100th birthday only to call it quits with just 17 days to go. Also, by dying less than 24 hours before the New Year, White poked a second finger into the eye of those who study The Holiday Effect (which I am not making up), just to mess with us. The audacity!
One can hardly fault our third case study, Bob Barker (December 12, 1923–August 26, 2023), who came within 108 days of reaching 100. Barker after all made a career out of reminding his Price Is Right contestants to guess as close to the price as possible without going over, so he can be forgiven for adhering to his own rule. Still, Betty White came closest without going over. Sorry, Bob! But we do have some nice parting gifts for you.
Which brings us back to Carter. Is it possible ol’ Jimmy willed himself to make it to his 99th birthday, a full 225 days after entering hospice care, because he longed to be a member of this new club? Or because his beloved Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball and he wants to watch them win another World Series? Who knows. Whatever it is, he’s at the very least showed that The Birthday Effect is still in effect…for now. Whether he becomes the first president to make it to age 100 or simply the latest member of my newly formed “99 is the new 100” club is anyone’s guess. However it plays out, Happy Birthday, Mr. President!
Joseph Connelly is the founder of VegNews Magazine and an editor at Animals Voice.